Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Cruz vs. Dewhurst US Senate Runoff Election VERY LIKELY new Texas Tribune Poll Suggests

A new Texas Tribune/UT poll released today indicates that the Cruz Surge continues and he’s headed to a runoff with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.

Here’s a summary of the new independent, statewide poll:
  • Dewhurst is at 38%, Cruz 27% and the next two candidates are 20 points behind at 7%.
  • This means the race is headed for a runoff between Cruz and Dewhurst.
  • Despite being in statewide office for 14 years and having universal name ID among GOP primary voters, the Lt. Governor is far from closing in on the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. AndCruz is in a solid second place, and surging strongly.
  • A runoff would overwhelmingly favor Cruz, given that the most engaged and conservative voters would dominate a runoff – informed conservative voters are a nightmare for Dewhurst.
  • Here’s how UT pollster Jim Henson summarizes the situation:“Cruz is in the advantageous position right now of, for the most part, defending his ideas against Dewhurst's record. In the last few cycles, that's been a good place to be, and not to be the person who's having to defend your actions in government.”
  • Henson added these numbers are a “yellow flag” for Dewhurst. And the Texas Tribune noted that Cruz is looming in the rearview mirror of Dewhurst.

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